As the last month of baseball’s regular season hits full swing, it’s time we start scoreboard watching! The wild card race in both leagues is getting quite interesting, but between the two, I would definitely determine that there is more to watch in the American League. 

A five-team race for the 2 wild card spots is well underway these last few weeks in the Junior Circuit, and with under a month to go, it’s time to break down all the teams and say who I think has the best chance of making it to the postseason. Let’s go!

The Teams

Currently, this is how the race is looking:

Boston Red Sox, 80-63, 1 Game Ahead

New York Yankees, 78-63, 0 Games Behind

Toronto Blue Jays, 77-63, .5 Games Behind

Oakland Athletics, 77-64, 1 Game Behind

Seattle Mariners, 77-64, 1 Game Behind

So, who’s got the edge here?

Breaking It Down

Red Sox

When the Red Sox started the year hot, it didn’t come as a surprise to many. The team still has the All-Star talents of Xander Boegarts and Rafael Devers, along with the electric J.D. Martinez and some young talent such as Alex Verdugo and Bobby Dalbec. Add in a solid rotation headlined by Nathan Eovaldi and the team looked good. Some cold streaks have dropped Boston to well behind Tampa Bay (8 whole games back) for the AL East crown, leaving this talented roster, now with the addition of Kyle Schwarber and the return of Chris Sale (who just tested positive for COVID-19 and will miss his next start on Sunday) fighting for their playoff lives in a loaded field. 

A series against the White Sox this weekend (the Red Sox dropped the first game on Friday night 4-3), along with a crucial three game set against the Mariners right after and a Yankees series towards the end of the month will all define where Boston sets to finish, along with 2 series against the Orioles and 2 games against the Mets. Aside from the Orioles, this isn’t a fun finish for the Red Sox in their last 16 games. If the likes of Sale, Eovaldi, and Eduardo Rodriguez can help out a powerful offensive lineup, Boston should be able to keep their hold on the first wild card spot. But it’s going to be a tough go-around for a team only 36-34 on the road this season.

Yankees

Year in, year out, everyone in the United States expects the Yankees to put together another strong campaign. Things looked bleak for the Bronx Bombers early on, but a series of post-deadline hot streaks after a flurry of trade deadline acquisitions, most notably Anthony Rizzo, and the sudden emergence of infielder Andrew Velazquez, have catapulted New York into the thick of the wild card race.

The Yankees head into a weekend Subway Series with the Mets (the Yankees imploded Friday night in the first game of that series, 10-3) fresh off of dropping 5 of their last 7, including losing two of three to Baltimore and getting swept by the Blue Jays, who are now right on their heels for the second wild card berth. Thankfully for New York, their schedule gets a bit softer, with series against the Mets, Orioles again, Indians, and Rangers all incoming, along with a single make-up game against the Twins. The Yankees need to take urgent advantage of this soft spot in their schedule, with 3 teams within 2 games of them, and consecutive series against Boston and Toronto to close the season out after that. Good baseball teams are often measured by how much they beat inferior competition and take care of business; if the Yankees can beat down on worse teams, they should be able to punch an easy ticket to the playoffs.

Blue Jays

Talk about a hot streak.

A 4-game sweep of the Yankees amidst an 8-game winning streak has brought Toronto to within half a game of the Wild Card, and to within 1.5 of taking the first spot from Boston. And let’s be real, who doesn’t want to see this team in the playoffs? Vladimir Guerrero Jr., who has a serious chance at the Triple Crown? Bo Bichette and Marcus Semien? Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Teoscar Hernandez? George Springer?? Toronto has an absolutely electric offense, and let’s not forget about Robbie Ray anchoring the rotation and making a Cy Young push, with a 1.51 ERA in his last seven starts before Friday night against the Orioles. This team would be a treat to watch in the playoffs, and much like Monty (@OnThePodForever) said to me last week, it’s pretty likely Toronto would have been ahead of both Boston and New York by now if they had a healthy Springer all year or had been able to play in Toronto before June.

The Blue Jays’ remaining September schedule is a toss-up. 4 games against the Orioles (they dropped the first game to the Orioles 6-3), 6 games against the Rays alternating with 7 games against the Twins, followed by 3 games against the Yankees to close out the year. Considering the 4 game sweep they just pulled off against the Bronx Bombers, and the dreadfulness of both Baltimore and Minnesota, Toronto’s main issue is the two three game sets with Tampa. If they can keep pace with the Rays, and take care of business elsewhere, I think we’ll see the Jays in the playoffs. Let’s hope they can do it.

Athletics

Everyone, meet the Oakland Athletics, a team that year in and year out, continues to flirt with success, only to somehow continue to fail to meet expectations that keep slowly decreasing. Despite competing with Houston for the AL West lead for a good part of the year, the A’s have been unable to keep pace with the Astros lately, having been a victim of a Toronto sweep recently, and struggling to beat other fellow playoff chasers in New York and Seattle. The Athletics are a powerful baseball team, led by the likes of Matt Chapman and Matt Olsen, with the assistance of a sharp rotation headlined by Chris Bassitt, Frankie Montas, and Sean Manaea, and trade deadline acquisitions including Starling Marte and Josh Harrison. Oakland brings us the same thing every season: a great team, but never able to take that next step to seriously contend.

Oakland’s schedule, much like Toronto’s, is very much a toss-up. While they get a bit of a break with series against the Rangers, Royals, and Angels upcoming, they finish the year with 7 games against the Mariners, sandwiched only by 3 games against the Astros. This has to be put bluntly; it’s time for the A’s to prove how well built for the postseason they are. Take care of business against the weak opponents, and win the series against Seattle. It’s their only way in, and they can’t rely on extra help. Oakland has a perfect chance to prove themselves as built for the playoffs, and if they can’t do it, then the team will show the world on their own.

Mariners

What in the world are the Seattle Mariners doing in the middle of a postseason push in the year 2021? Not a soul in the country thought this team was this good in April, yet there they sit, 2 games out of a wild card spot and 12 games above .500. Ty France is a hit machine out of the infield, J.P. Crawford and Dylan Moore are speed demons, Kyle Seager is having a career renaissance with 30 home runs on the season, and a guy named Chris Flexen has a 3.56 ERA. Oh yeah, Yusei Kikuchi also has 149 strikeouts on the year. This team came out of nowhere, and they messed up showing baseball how much talent they have, because a lot of pressure can build on a team trying to break a 20-year playoff drought. Seattle has unfortunately struggled with some inconsistency lately, losing 3 of 4 to the Royals a few weeks ago, and letting a crucial 9th inning lead slip into a loss against the Astros earlier this week. 

No team has more work to do these last few weeks than the Mariners, more because of the pressure of finally breaking through the longest active postseason drought in pro sports than anything else. Seattle will have a 3 games series against the Diamondbacks (the Mariners outlasted Arizona in the first game, 5-4), who they swept last weekend, followed by sets with Boston, Kansas City, 4 with Oakland, the Angels, and another 3 against the As to finish the year. Not the hardest schedule, but definitely not the easiest. The Mariners need to seriously lock in to get it done, because inconsistency will get them nowhere. Do they have a chance? We’ll have to wait and see.

Well, Who’s Getting a Spot?

First, let’s rank these team’s remaining schedules (1 being the easiest, 5 being the hardest):

1. Yankees
2. Blue Jays
3. Mariners
4. Athletics
5. Red Sox

Of course the Yankees get the easiest remaining schedule. 3 games each against Boston and Toronto are outweighed by the Rangers, Orioles, and Indians.

The Blue Jays do have to play the Rays 6 times. A set against the Yankees isn’t alarming to them after a huge sweep this week. Who doesn’t want two series against the Twins?

Seattle is finishing playing the Astros for the year, meaning their toughest games left are Boston and Oakland. This makes their schedule slightly easier than the As, who still have a series left against Houston.

The Red Sox have to play the White Sox, the Mariners, and the Yankees. Ouch.

Prediction

Blue Jays and Yankees.

The talent level and the easier schedules will do it for both teams, accounting for the Red Sox regression and the inevitability of both Oakland and Seattle tripping on their own feet (again). Boston has the best outside shot, mainly because of this likely situation. However, the unpredictability of baseball can make anything happen.

Let’s play ball.