When Josh Bell was traded from the Pirates to the Nationals last winter, the expectation within the industry and for Bell himself was that he would be heading from the bottom feeders of the NL to a playoff contender. Obviously, fast forward a year, the Nationals had traded away half their roster at the deadline and finished the season at 65-97 in the basement of the worst division in baseball. This has left the 29-year-old first baseman, who will be heading into his last season before free agency, in a very interesting spot. 

In an interview with Jesse Dougherty of The Washington Post on last week’s episode of Half Street High Heat, the Nationals beat writer outlined some very intriguing points regarding Josh Bell. He noted that Bell’s future with the organization could determine just how long Mike Rizzo and co. expect the rebuild to last, stating here:

“Josh Bell to me is super interesting because he kind of feels like a bellwether for the whole rebuild in a way. If you trade him this July, it’s gonna be longer than we thought, and if they don’t and discuss extension with him, it’s gonna maybe be shorter than we thought.”

I absolutely agree with this sentiment for several reasons. First, I want to believe the Nats traded for Josh Bell with the idea that there was a real chance they could be in a rebuild for the second year of team control they acquired with him. After all, there was a reason they focused in on essentially all 1-year deal guys last offseason. However, there also had to be a reason why Bell wasn’t traded with the rest of the expiring contracts and Trea Turner at last year’s deadline. The extra year of team control would’ve been valuable to a contender, but the Nationals actually lucked out here because Bell built his value up even further with an excellent second half of the season. 

So now the Nats are faced with the question: do they trade Bell while his value is the highest it has been since his breakout 2019 season, or do they extend him for a few more years? What would make the most sense and do we know it yet?  

Dougherty outlines the prospect of extending Bell, quoting: 

“I think [the Nationals could] sign Josh Bell for 3 years to have him be your first baseman through the rebuild, and maybe the rebuild accelerates and you get lucky on some people, a prospect accelerates faster than you thought, you hit on a reliever in free agency: all of a sudden you’re like last year’s Red Sox team who were probably ahead of schedule and really talented and had a really good run. Then yeah, I think it makes a lot of sense to keep Josh Bell and have him in the middle of the lineup with Juan Soto.”

On the other hand, if the Nationals are looking at this from a longer-term perspective than we may be thinking, Dougherty states the following could happen:

“If they’re thinking of this as a 5-year process, then maybe in June/July if he’s hot you could flip him for 2 to 3 prospects or a really big name or something.”

Dougherty said he does not have an answer as to what the Nationals current thinking is at this time with regards to Josh Bell as well as how long they intend the rebuild to last, but he notes that as a good thing and could see both sides of the equation:

“I think [Bell] is sort of the key to understanding the time frame because frankly, the Nationals have no reason to tell us the time frame because then they’re going to be held to it, right? Publicly putting out like ‘we’re gonna win by 2024.’ Okay now you have to, or ‘we’re not going to [win] until 2027,’ now no one’s in the ballpark and no one is gonna come to games.”

That is an excellent point right there. The Nationals holding their cards close to their chest with regards to how long they expect the rebuild to continue is huge for posturing in both a baseball and business perspective. This leaves it up to the fans to decipher the length by looking at the type of moves they make with current players as well as in free agency and trades. And like Dougherty has said, Bell is essentially the main one to watch in that case. 

I have made my position in the “Extend Josh Bell” camp known countless times now. However, I am open to trading him in the right situation, like the one Dougherty outlined where you deal him at the deadline if he’s hot and/or having a good year and you can get some solid pieces for him. I would say this makes the most sense obviously if the Nationals don’t see themselves being a competitive baseball team again until Bell is in his late 30s, but also if he doesn’t express any desire to stay in D.C. long-term or they cannot come to an agreement on a number for an extension (which should not be hard at all for a player of Bell’s profile).

There is also the possibility of trading Bell as early as this offseason, but I don’t think that really makes any sense unless a team offers the Nats something they can’t pass up. Again, unless they’re offered something you can’t possibly refuse for a rental first baseman, I’d like to see the Nats keep Bell as their first baseman for 2022 at least up until the trade deadline. Yes, the Nationals will certainly not be competitive for a playoff spot this season, but you also want to have at least a little pride in the product you put on the field. Sure, the Nationals are blessed enough to have a top 2 player in the sport under team control for 3 more seasons. However, you take Josh Bell, 1 of 2 proven good players on the team, out of the equation? You just went from putting a crap product on the field to a Pirates/Orioles level of product on the field, which is a terrible look for a franchise that has an ownership much more willing to spend than those two. 

So all in all, I agree with Jesse Dougherty in the sense that I truly believe Josh Bell is the key guy to watch with how the Nationals will approach the rest of the rebuild in regards to the timeframe. Again, personally, I would love to see him extended, but only time will tell as we look forward to what happens with the Nationals first baseman as well as the direction of the Nationals franchise.