Happy Friday! MLB Opening Weekend is here and baseball is back. But college baseball is in full swing with everyone in conference play this weekend. Below I’ve highlighted some big match-ups occurring this weekend and how you can watch them if you are so inclined. Don’t forget– you join the HSHH Patreon for access to my College Baseball/Amateur Draft Baseball show, “The Amateur Update” for just $3 a month (or $10 for HSHH shows) and you’ll get even more in-depth previews of the 3 series highlighted below plus recaps, draft talk, and even fun trivia questions. Go to @HalfStreetHighHeat on Twitter and follow the instructions on the pinned tweet to sign up.
The Top 25 Rankings I am using are from D1 Baseball, and most other references are from Baseball America, including the Top 50 College Prospects list for the 2022 MLB Draft. Even though MLB is back, I’ll continue to highlight the top match-ups every weekend throughout the college baseball season. There will be plenty of focus on top MLB prospects, so when the draft comes in the summer, you’ll already know many of the names that get called. Many of these players are featured in mid-March.
Match-ups to Watch
#3 Virginia 26-3 (9-3) at #8 Miami 23-6 (10-2)
Friday, 7:00 (ACC Network):
LHP Nate Savino, Jr. (7 G, 4-1, 3.00) vs LHP Carson Palmquist, 3-So. (7 G, 5-1, 3.22)
Saturday, 7:00 (ACCNX):
LHP Brian Gursky, 5-Sr. (6 G, 5-0, 2.61) vs RHP Karson Ligon, Fr. (7 G, 4-1, 1.45)
Sunday, 1:00 (SECN+):
LHP Jake Berry, So. (11 G, 4-0, 3.54) vs RHP Alejandro Rosario, So. (6 G, 1-1, 8.17)
A top 10 matchup pitting the top two teams in the ACC’s Coastal division is the biggest series of the weekend and it’s fitting that both Friday and Saturday’s games will be under the bright lights in Coral Gables. Virginia comes in as one of the best teams in the nation on both sides of the ball, but particularly with that lethal lineup. Miami, meanwhile, has won 10 in a row including back-to-back ACC sweeps of Duke and Top-25 ranked North Carolina.
The key to this series likely lies with how Miami’s hot pitching staff handles this Virginia offense. Carson Palmquist, the Hurricanes’ ace, hasn’t quite been as good in the starting role as he had been as the closer. In 2020 and 2021 as a reliever, Palmquist had 90 strikeouts versus just 13 walks in 56.1 innings. In comparison as a starter this year, he has 56 strikeouts and 15 walks already in just 36.1 innings pitched. He rarely pitches six innings or beyond, and his worst start of the year came in the ACC Opener against bottom feeder Boston College when he gave up 9 earned runs in 3.1 innings. The Sunday starter, Alejandro Rosario, lost his spot in the weekend rotation and was lit up by Towson and Harvard, but since his return to the rotation, he’s been really good. He gave up 2 earned and 1 earned in starts against UNC and Duke, respectively. But the real star of the rotation is true freshman Karson Ligon, who starts on Saturday and has 39 strikeouts in 37.1 innings.
As hot as the Miami pitching staff is, which includes freshman Jake Garland and closer Andrew Walters, Miami ranks 6th in the ACC in ERA. They’ll face a UVA lineup that is first in the country (not just ACC) in batting average, on-base percentage, and runs. They are third in slugging and have 47 home runs. Jake Gelof is the nation’s home run and RBI leader, while the entire lineup 1-9 can do damage. Traditionally known for playing small ball under coach Brian O’Connor, this year’s team can beat you in a myriad of ways; they can win with small ball by bunting, hit and runs, and sacrifice flies to generate offense; they can beat you with the long ball, as their 47 home runs is on pace to shatter their team records; they can beat you with clutch hitting when down in the count or on 2 outs in an inning; and they can string together hits and walks to put up crooked numbers and wear down pitchers. They even steal bases, ranking second in the ACC with 41.
Now it probably sounds like UVA should go down to Coral Gables and sweep Miami with ease, but that’s not the case. I believe that Virginia should and will win this series by taking two of three, but it will not be easy.
Top Prospects (According to Baseball America’s Top 150 College Prospects)
LHP Carson Palmquist, Miami #21
C/OF Kyle Teel, UVA #44
LHP Nate Savino, UVA #74
RHP Alejandro Rosario, Miami #75
OF Chris Newell, UVA #76
3B Yohandy Morales, Miami #114
RHP Alex McFarlane, Miami #119
#22 North Carolina 20-9 (6-6) at #12 Louisville 21-7 (7-2)
Friday, 6:00 (ACCNX):
RHP Max Carlson, So. (7 G, 1-1, 2.36) vs LHP Tate Kuehner, Jr. (7 G, 4-1, 3.51)
Saturday, 1:00 (ACCNX):
TBD vs RHP Jared Poland, Sr. (7 G, 2-1, 2.53)
Sunday, 1:00 (ACCNX)
LHP Brandon Schaeffer, Jr. (9 G, 2-1, 3.74) vs LHP Riley Phillips, So. (7 G, 3-1, 2.68)
North Carolina has been struggling recently and their trip to Louisville is not coming at the best time. They just lost 15-2 to South Carolina on Wednesday after dropping two of three at home to Virginia Tech and being swept at Miami two weeks ago. They’re 2-6 in their last 8 and they’re going into a hostile environment where Louisville has played really well. Now, Louisville is also coming off a disappointing series loss to Pitt on the road, but they’re coming in fully rested after their mid-week game versus Kentucky was postponed due to weather.
UNC’s got an interesting decision to figure out this weekend for their pitching staff. Max Carlson, their best starter this year, will likely go on Friday, while Brandon Schaeffer, who has pitch Friday quite a few times this season, will likely pitch on Sunday after throwing 2 innings on Wednesday. Which means that Saturday is a question mark, as fellow starters Gillian Gage and Shaddon Peaveyhouse also pitched on Wednesday, so I’m not sure of their availability to start this weekend. Louisville on the other hand, holds the rotation advantage anyways but now have a fully rested rotation and bullpen.
Earlier in the season, I highlighted freshman Vance Honeycutt in a series preview against Coastal Carolina. At the time, he was hitting .414 with 5 homers and was making a similar impact to what fellow ACC freshman Tommy “Tanks” White was making for NC State. But since then he’s been pretty bad, as his average is down to .259 on the season. The UNC lineup will struggle to keep up with Louisville’s as Cardinals leadoff man Christian Knapczyk and #2 hitter Ben Metzinger provide a powerful 1-2 punch at the top of the order. Cameron Masterman, Dalton Rushing, and Jack Payton follow in the middle of the order and of the five hitters I just listed, only sophomore Jack Payton has an OPS under 1.000 at .991. UNC pitching could be looking at a very long weekend.
Louisville will win this series easily and I expect them sweep UNC, who is reeling after a good start to the year.
Top Prospects (According to Baseball America’s Top 150 College Prospects)
SS Christian Knapczyk, Louisville #118
#23 TCU 20-9 (6-3) at #7 Texas 22-9 (3-3)
Friday, 7:30 (Longhorn Network):
RHP Riley Cornelio, So. (7 G, 3-1, 3.10) vs LHP Pete Hansen (5-0, 2.51)
Saturday, 6:00 (ESPNU):
RHP Marcelo Perez, Jr. (8 G, 2-1, 2.16) vs RHP Tristan Stevens (4-2, 3.16)
Sunday, 1:00 (ESPNU):
RHP Brett Walker 5-Sr. (7 G, 3-1, 4.89) vs LHP Lucas Gordan (2-1, 2.53)
Texas has momentum on their side after what could be a season defining win against bitter rival Oklahoma last weekend, as they fought back from a 7-1 deficit in the 7th to win 12-8 and clinch the series to avoid starting Big 12 play with back-to-back conference losses. TCU, on the other hand, dropped two of three at home to West Virginia, and now stand 6-3 in the Big 12 having started conference play a week earlier than Texas.
I’m not sure what’s happened with Texas, as they were the clear #1 team for me to start the year 11-0 with a dominant sweep of Alabama and stifling pitching wins over SEC powerhouses Tennessee (their only loss) and LSU. Then Tanner Witt was pulled against UCLA and the Longhorns soon learned he was out for the season needing Tommy John Surgery. Since then Texas is 11-9, and hasn’t looked as formidable. And it’s not because of Witt’s replacement in the rotation in Lucas Gordon, because Gordon has been really good in 4 of his 5 starts, with the one exception being the aforementioned game against Oklahoma that they won. Pete Hanson has dazzled and is 5-0 with 52 strikeouts and just 8 walks. Tristan Stevens likewise has been very good outside a horrendous Texas Tech start two weeks ago when he gave up 7 runs in the first inning without recording an out. So what’s wrong with Texas?
It doesn’t seem to be their offense either, as Trey Faltine and Ivan Melendez are having career years. They are clutch hitting with 41% of their runs being scored with 2 outs, and Kansas transfer Skyler Messinger and Douglas Hodo III have also been very good. Murphy Stehly has been red hot and arguable Texas’s best hitter recently. They’ll face a TCU rotation that’s going through some changes. Saturday’s starter for the Horned Frogs is Marcelo Perez, who is making his first start after appearing in 8 games as a reliever this year. Top 150 college prospect Austin Krob is out of the rotation, and Brett Walker has struggled as the Sunday starter all season.
It’s a great opportunity for Texas at home to try and sweep the Horned Frogs and potentially gain some ground on Oklahoma State in the Big 12 standings. They must find a way to win this series at all costs and I do believe they’ll sweep at home this weekend.
Top Prospects (According to Baseball America’s Top 150 College Prospects)
LHP Pete Hanson, Texas #34
RHP Tristan Stevens, Texas #49
1B Ivan Melendez, Texas #53
RHP Aaron Nixon, Texas #68
3B Brayden Taylor, TCU #71
LHP Austin Krob, TCU #85
SS Trey Faltine, Texas #90
2B Mitchell Daly, Texas #115
OF Douglas Hodo III, Texas #136
Other Top 25 Matchups
Missouri 17-8 (3-6) at #1 Tennessee 28-1 (9-0)
Top Prospects
OF Jordan Beck, Tennessee #36
RHP Blade Tidwell #62
RHP Chase Burns, Tennessee #94
RHP Chase Dollander, Tennessee #144
#2 Arkansas 23-5 (7-3) at Florida 19-11 (3-7)
This series started Thursday night with an 8-1 Arkansas win and will continue today before concluding on Saturday.
Top Prospects
LHP Hunter Barco, Florida #9
2B Robert Moore, Arkansas #16
OF Jud Fabian, Florida #24
3B Cayden Wallace, Arkansas #42
OF Jace Bohrofen, Arkansas #46
1B Peyton Stovall, Arkansas #63
RHP Jaxon Wiggins, Arkansas #69
OF Sterlin Thompson, Florida #83
SS Jalen Battles, Arkansas #110
SS Josh Rivera, Florida #117
OF Michael Robertson, Florida #129
#4 Texas Tech 24-7 (4-2) at Kansas State 15-13 (1-5)
Top Prospects
2B Jace Jung, Texas Tech #3
1B Cole Stilwell, Texas Tech #147
#5 Oregon State 21-7 (7-5) at Southern Cal 17-9 (4-5)
Top Prospects
LHP Cooper Hjerpe, OSU #30
2B Travis Bazzana, OSU #65
OF Jacob Melton, OSU #128
Oklahoma 17-10 (3-3) at #6 Oklahoma State 21-8 (5-1)
Top Prospects
3B/SS Peyton Graham, Oklahoma #23
RHP/1B Justin Campbell, Oklahoma State #58
RHP Victor Mederos, Oklahoma State #64
3B Nolan McLean, Oklahoma State #78
1B Griffin Doersching, Oklahoma State #113
Alabama 18-12 (4-5) at #9 Ole Miss 19-9 (4-5)
Top Prospects
SS Jacob Gonzalez, Ole Miss #14
1B Tim Elko, Ole Miss #25
C Hayden Dunhurst, Ole Miss #43
OF Kevin Graham, Ole Miss #80
OF Camden Hayslip, Alabama #137
OF TJ McCants, Ole Miss #143
Georgia Southern 18-10 (6-3) at #10 Texas State 23-7 (8-1)
Top Prospects
Washington State 10-18 (2-10) at #11 Arizona 21-8 (9-3)
Top Prospects
C Daniel Susac, Arizona #7
RHP TJ Nichols, Arizona #91
Clemson 19-9 (2-6) at #13 Notre Dame 17-5 (5-4)
1B/LHP Caden Grice, Clemson #32
LHP John Michael Bertrand, Notre Dame #56
3B/RHP Jack Brannigan, Notre Dame #95
#14 Georgia 22-7 (6-3) at South Carolina 13-14 (3-6)
Top Prospects
RHP Jonathan Cannon, UGA #40
RHP Will Sanders, South Carolina #92
C Corey Collins, UGA #132
#15 UCLA 20-8 (6-3) at Utah 17-11 (4-5)
Top Prospects
RHP Max Rajcic, UCLA #73
RHP Jared Karros, UCLA #100
LHP Gage Jump, UCLA #109
#16 Vanderbilt 21-7 (4-5) at Auburn 20-9 (5-4)
Top Prospects
OF Enrique Bradfield, Jr., Vanderbilt #17
RHP Nick Maldonado, Vanderbilt #31
SS Carter Young, Vanderbilt #41
RHP Patrick Reilly, Vanderbilt #47
C Dominic Keegan, Vanderbilt #60
2B Davis Diaz, Vanderbilt #88
LHP Carter Holton, Vanderbilt #96
OF Spencer Jones, Vanderbilt #103
RHP Christian Little, Vanderbilt #116
3B Parker Noland, Vanderbilt #121
#17 Gonzaga 19-7 (7-2) at San Francisco 16-16 (5-4)
Top Prospects
RHP Gabriel Hughes, Gonzaga #79
SS Luke Keaschall, SF #149
#18 Southern Miss 20-8 (7-2) at Charlotte 17-10 (4-5)
Top Prospects
2B Austin Knight, Charlotte #72
3B David McCabe, Charlotte #84
#19 LSU 20-9 (4-5) at Mississippi State 18-12 (4-5)
Top Prospects
3B/OF Jacob Berry, LSU #2
OF Dylan Crews, LSU #4
IF Cade Doughty, LSU #18
C Logan Tanner, Mississippi State #26
1B Tre’ Morgan, LSU #28
OF Gavin Dugas, LSU #50
RHP Ty Floyd, LSU #107
SS Jordan Thompson, LSU #126
#20 Florida State 16-11 (6-6) at Georgia Tech 19-11 (5-7)
Top Prospects
LHP Parker Messick, FSU #12
C Kevin Parada, GT #15
LHP Bryce Hubbart, FSU #19
RHP Carson Montgomery, FSU #98
OF Tres Gonzalez, GT #101
RHP Zach Maxwell, GT #105
OF Logan Lacey, FSU #127
3B Drew Compton, GT #135
#21 NC State 18-9 (6-5) at Virginia Tech 18-7 (5-5)
Top Prospects
OF Gavin Cross, Virginia Tech #6
RHP Sam Highfill, NC State #66
LHP Chris Villaman, NC State #82
Missouri State 14-10 (0-0) at #24 Dallas Baptist 18-10 (0-0)
Top Prospects
OF Jace Grady, DBU #111
St. John’s 11-18 (0-0) at #25 Connecticut 19-7 (0-0)