On July 30th 2021, the Nationals traded away franchise icon Jon Lester to the St. Louis Cardinals and got Lane Thomas in return. Thomas was up and down for the Cardinals and never quite put it together for them. At the time, the trade return was deemed “you got a body for Jon Lester and that in itself is a win.”

In the second half of 2021, Lane played to the tune of a .853 OPS (a career high for him). That led to him playing 146 games for the Nationals in 2022 but he regressed mightily, slashing .241/.301/.404. This year, Lane has seemed to put it all together and is currently slashing .299/.348/.490 with a career high in batting average (min 35 games played) and a career high in slugging (min 35 games played). He also has 14 home runs and 50 RBIs. The Nationals MUST cash in and trade him now.

Trading Thomas at the deadline is one of the easiest no brainers this team has ever had. You have a player who projects as a platoon bat, a fourth outfielder who put up an All-Star caliber first half. There are many teams who currently need outfield help and Thomas will have a good market (looking at you, New York Yankees). Thomas also comes with 2 more years of club control beyond this season which boosts his value.

Another reason why Thomas should be traded is that this season’s performance is not sustainable long-term. Thomas currently has a BABIP of .373. BABIP, which stands for Batting Average for Balls in Play, is typically a good indicator on whether a batter’s performance is sustainable. Players will always gravitate towards the mean. The league average BABIP this year is .297, which means that regression for Lane is almost certainly coming at some point. Trading him and selling him at the peak of his value needs to happen before that regression occurs. If the Nationals hold onto Thomas and sees him regress to what he was in 2022 (when his BABIP was at league average), it would be a big blunder. 

Lastly, this team should trade Lane Thomas simply because they got him for Jon Lester. That may not make sense but hear me out. The fact they got anyone of any value for that aging arm is great in itself. But then developing him and flipping him for a couple of prospects continues the type of trade chains that successful teams make. These types of deals and continuations of moves help accelerate rebuilds and bring in more depth to a organization.

The return on Thomas won’t be what everyone wants because it’s not going to result in a top 100 prospect. Most of the teams contending are smart enough to know that Thomas’ first half was not sustainable and is best utilized a part of a platoon. Despite his solid arm and outfield assist numbers, Thomas has a negative DRS and a negative OAA, which displays his issues in the outfield. These are things that teams will consider when trading for Thomas. Even with those, this team can still absolutely get one or two of a team’s top 15 prospects in a return and that is a massive win for a franchise that needs to pick up wins anywhere they can.